Predictive Scheduling

What predictive scheduling laws require

The laws target unpredictable schedules in retail, food service and hospitality, where shifts are often posted a few days out and changed at the last minute. Details vary by city, but most include the same building blocks:

• Advance notice: post schedules 14 days ahead (some laws started at 7 or 10 days).
• Good-faith estimate at hire: tell new employees in writing how many hours and which days and times they can expect.
• Predictability pay: pay a premium when the employer changes a posted schedule. A common structure is one extra hour of pay for added time or a changed shift, and half pay for hours cut.
• Right to rest: let employees decline shifts that start less than 10 or 11 hours after the previous one ended ("clopening"), or pay a premium, often time and a half, if they agree to work it.
• Access to hours: offer additional hours to current part-time employees before hiring new staff or using temps.
• Records and notices: keep schedules and change records, often for two or three years, and post a notice of rights.

Most laws exempt changes requested by the employee, shift swaps between employees, and emergencies such as severe weather or utility failures.

Where fair workweek laws apply

San Francisco's Formula Retail Employee Rights Ordinance, effective in 2015, was the first. Others followed: Seattle's Secure Scheduling Ordinance (2017), New York City's Fair Workweek Law for fast food and retail (2017), Oregon's statewide law (2018), Chicago's Fair Workweek Ordinance (2020), Philadelphia's Fair Workweek law (2020) and Los Angeles's retail ordinance (2023), along with several smaller California cities and, more recently, unincorporated Los Angeles County.

Coverage is usually defined by industry and size. Oregon covers retail, hospitality and food service employers with 500 or more employees worldwide. Seattle covers retail and food service employers with 500 or more employees worldwide, with a higher threshold for full-service restaurants. Chicago covers a broader set of industries, including warehouse services, healthcare and building services, and applies to employees below an income threshold.

State and local legislatures keep adding and amending these laws, and a few states have passed laws preventing their cities from adopting them. Check each work location.

Worked example

A Seattle grocery store posts schedules two weeks ahead. On Wednesday, the manager adds a 4-hour shift on Friday for Maria, who agrees, and cuts Jamal's Saturday shift from 8 hours to 5.

• Maria: added hours with less than 14 days' notice. Under Seattle's ordinance she is owed one extra hour of predictability pay, on top of pay for the 4 hours she works.
• Jamal: 3 hours cut. He is owed half his regular rate for the 3 lost hours.

At $20 an hour, that's $20 for Maria and $30 for Jamal. Small amounts, but a store making 50 such changes a week pays thousands a month, and missed premiums add up to back pay and penalties during an investigation.

How it affects hiring and workforce planning

Predictive scheduling pushes the cost of poor forecasting back onto the employer. That changes a few things:

• Forecasting matters more. Stores and contact centers with weak demand forecasts pay predictability premiums every week. Better workforce management pays for itself in covered cities.
• Access-to-hours rules affect hiring. Before opening requisitions for new part-time staff, you may need to offer the hours to current employees, document the offer and wait for responses.
• Job postings and offers need accurate hour estimates. The good-faith estimate becomes part of the hiring paperwork, and recruiters should know what to say about expected hours.
• Scheduling systems need the rules built in. Your shift scheduling and time and attendance tools should flag short-notice changes and calculate premiums automatically.

Many employers outside covered cities adopt lighter versions anyway. Stable schedules are one of the most cited reasons hourly workers stay, and two weeks' notice is a reasonable standard for any hourly hiring operation.

Common mistakes

• Treating manager-requested swaps as voluntary. If the employer initiated it, a premium is usually due.
• Skipping the written good-faith estimate for new hires.
• Posting new part-time jobs without offering hours to current staff first.
• Poor records. Without change logs, you can't prove a change was employee-requested.
• Forgetting clopening rules when scheduling a closer for an early open.

This is general information. Fair workweek rules differ significantly by city and state, so confirm the requirements for each location.